Evidence Sony Blew It
At the end of Easy Rider, Wyatt (Captain America) forlornly says, “We blew it,” after realizing that the search for freedom on the road was for naught. His companion, Billy, doesn’t understand what Wyatt meant. He sees the money they have as freedom. The next day both were killed by rednecks.
I have a feeling there is a lot of Billy in Sony right now and not enough Wyatt.
While Sony sold out of its Playstation 3s in Japan, it was easy to do so. According to Japanese gaming industry news source, Enterbrain, it turns out there were only 88,400 units released in the entire country. What is that, about 1 out of every 20 people who wanted one actually got a Playstation 3?
For the U.S. launch, analysts are estimating about 150,000 to 200,000 on launch day. Sony says it will release 400,000 to North America for the launch. But with Best Buy’s announcement that Internet pre-orders the company offered are now rescinded, and the company kicking overnight campers off its property, it appears that there will be less units available. Circuit City says each of its stores will only have 100 units on launch day.
Reports don’t get much better after launch day, however. Rumors suggest that only two million Playstation 3s will be made available per continent until 2008. And with the problems the unit is reported to have already, and the rush to get them out. You can expect further delays if the Playstation 3s have to be recalled or repaired in the near term.
Now compare that with the Nintendo Wii. Nintendo Japan has already confirmed it will have 400,000 units available for its December 1st launch in Japan. Nintendo North America is mum on numbers available for its North American launch. Although Nintendo Japan has said it will ship 4 million units worldwide in the six weeks following the launch.
Worldwide, however, investors are liking Nintendo’s position on the eve of the Wii launch as its shares are trading at a record high. A good sign for a company that has been lost in the dust of Sony and Japan for years.
But, I am not sure if Nintendo will benefit completely from the Sony’s dismal supply problems. Microsoft could be poised to get some customers on its side with some help from retailers. Stores like Best Buy aren’t stupid. What is going to happen to all those people with the money they alloted for the Playstation burning a hole in their pockets, yet weren’t able to score a Playstation 3? How about some nice promotions that will move Xbox 360s out the door? Perhaps a buy one game, get another free promotion? Or better yet, buy an Xbox 360 and get a free Zune! OK, that won’t happen, but maybe a discount on a Zune?
Nintendo, however, might not be able to capitalize on those disappointed Playstation 3 hopefuls because its launch is the next day, and it is a good bet the Wii will sell out, too. Again, that leaves one console smelling like a rose: Xbox 360. So Microsoft could be poised to sell more units than it expected during this double launch week.
Who knows, however. That is the fun of speculation. If I was a betting man, in the end, I’d bet Nintendo for the win, Microsoft to place (photo finish) and Sony for show. But this race is just beginning.
Sony, however, better keep its head on a swivel, lest it find itself ending up like Wyatt and Billy.
Wednesday, November 15 4:39 pm
I have to disagree with many of your conclusions. Although Sony will have very small numbers of systems to sell by christmas this isn’t going to hurt them significantly over the next three year cycle. The fact that the system is so expensive justifies their low numbers and also gives the appearance of a far more powerful system (debatable wether it is or not–Blue ray makes it superior to the 360 in my eyes). Microsoft was in a similar position with regard to launches with the original xbox as sony is today with the PS3, a more powerful system and more expensive. That perception of power and the inclusion of one killer app (2 if you count the sequel) in halo made the xbox a viable competitor although it never approached the numbers of the deuce (ps2). The thing about the playstation is not just a single killer app but lots and lots of really spectacular stuff. Developers seem content to make safe stuff for the xbox but safe stuff is rarely remembered (even gears of war is vanilla IMHO). I expect the same thing this round, that on top of the perception of the PS3 being more powerful is going to ultimately float sony to the top, and I expect relatively quickly.
The real dark horse is nintendo. You all know that I’m a huge fan boy of the wii. But when I see resident evil 5 on the PS3 it’s going to be really hard not to pine after one. Nintendo is going to do amazingly well, perhaps even better than both of the others at the end of three years, but the Wii’s graphics are going to be noticeably worse and that will eat away at the souls of those without one of the other two consoles. I do expect another nintendo system in three years which could prevent them from coming out of this gen as the one that just wasn’t powerful enough to hold on… I hope that’s what happens at least. I do know that I will love my Wii though and I’ll really want a PS3. The 360? Its junk, except for Halo which bungie would release on the Wii if they knew what was good for them.
Wednesday, November 15 4:44 pm
Dugg
Wednesday, November 15 4:48 pm
Oscar, you are entitled to your opinion, but YOU’RE WRONG!
Just kidding. Good points, but I feel the price is ultimately going to hurt Sony. It is too much, man. And as the price comes down, the Wii will continue to improve.
As for people buying the PS3 for Blue Ray, that could happen, but the format war is on and I don’t think the rush for adoption will be that big as people will remain satisfied with regular DVDs on HDTV. So, you will have more gamers buying PS3 for the console, and not seeing Blue Ray as added value.
So, in the grand scheme of things, what it comes down to is titles. To me, after playing both, the graphics of the Xbox 360 and the PS3 on HDTVs are not noticeable enough for me to shell out all the money.
If it was based on value for graphics, I’d buy an Xbox 360. Yet, that is not the most important. So, I’ll be looking at the Wii based on its gameplay and titles.
I still have fun playing Tetris because of its gameplay. I still like Mario Brothers because of its gameplay. However, I may be showing my age and if I was a rich 13-year-old kid in the suburbs with mom and dad’s checkbook, I may be waiting for a PS3 based on the reasons you stated — graphics power and perception. We all know the power of perception.
Wednesday, November 15 5:19 pm
Alright time for a FLAME WAR!
Dude, you’re discounting the superior games of the PS3. Sure GTA will be on both and that was a huge system seller but when a new Katamari Damacy, Shadow of the Collosus, Okami, Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Devil May Cry…. I could go on quite a bit more… hmm lost my train of thought. In comments you can’t look back!! Especially when FLAMING!! So the PS3 will have way, way, way better games than the Xbox. And yes you can’t tell the diff between the graphics yet, but the Blue Ray will make the differences in the graphics over time–I don’t give a rip about the movies. I’m talking about a 50 gig game! People say that that doesn’t matter yet… but in a year when you see the first 20 gig game you’ll know there’s a difference.
Also if I get the more expensive system then you know I’m a baller. I’m going to pimp my PS3 so it matches my rims and my grill (when I pay off some of my student loans, or sell a kidney or something).
YOUR WRONG!
Wednesday, November 15 5:31 pm
What about my wrong?
Yeah, yeah. I’ve heard it all before. But in the end, the high-end system costs $600. As for Blue Ray, I am still not convinced it will make things better. To me, the only thing that has happened to games is they’ve become more complicated. As if there is more emphasis being placed on graphics and less on game play.
Why do you think Katamari Damacy was so popular? Certainly not because of the graphics, right? So, to me, all Blue Ray is going to do is make game companies get in pissing matches with who can take up more of the 50 gigs worth of space on a disc.
But, again, what is the point of all of this if there are not enough systems around, and when there are enough, people aren’t buying them because they are too expensive? Every time there is a Sony console release, they sell out. But will it be enough for a person to shell out $600 and replace his PS2? There are A LOT of PS2s out there.
Now, a 50 gig version of MotoGP may convince me…
Wednesday, November 15 5:41 pm
The first console maker to sell “Adult” NC-17 games will kick ass. 50 GB of porn? Oh yeah!
Of course, the gameplay of the Wii would be interesting from a porn perspective as well.
Wednesday, November 15 5:43 pm
Dude. If there was a 50 gig version of katamari I would weep. Imagine all of the objects I could roll up? My katamari would be as big as YOUR MOMMA!!!!
50gigs should provide for some killer interactive DVDs as well. Imagine a movie released that had all camera angles on it, or even a bunch of different things happening at once such that you could choose that part you wanted to see. There’s some cool stuff that can happen there. Also, sony doesn’t want to ditch the PS2, they’re releasing the silver one this christmas and still supporting it. God of war 2 is going to be one of the best selling games this christmas (and one of the best) and it’s going to be on the deuce. Sony supported the psone for 10 years and they’re committing to the PS2 as well. They still want to sell them and they will. The real dumbass this time was MS who has pretty much pulled the plug on the original Xbox. There are a lot of people out there who would love some new games for it.
Wednesday, November 15 5:43 pm
That’s what decided the VHS Beta war.
Wednesday, November 15 5:58 pm
Finally Oscar is right about something in this thread! HA HA HA
Just kidding. You’re still right, though.
I am picturing a third-party Nunchuk that would be used specifically for porn titles. Oh yeah! Better yet, for the men, new from Fleshlight, the Wii-Spot®!
Hmmm, I think I am going to register Wii-Spot®
Thursday, November 16 9:18 am
Here’s some evidence that the PS3 is a bargain… I’m a bit skeptical because the very first line is “reality synthesizer” for only 129$ — that seems low to me at least compared to the other “reality synthesizer”s I’ve seen.
http://www.gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/ps3-a-bargain-worth-840-powerful-as-a-supercomputer-215203.php
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